Mexico Sees Trade Surplus in October Thanks to Export Surge

Mexico recorded a turnaround in its trade balance in October 2025, driven by strong growth in non-oil exports and a moderation in imports. According to the latest Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance (BCMM) report from INEGI, the country achieved a trade surplus of US$606 million, reversing the US$2.4-billion deficit registered in September. The improvement stemmed primarily from a sharp expansion in the non-petroleum balance, which shifted from a slight deficit to a surplus of US$2.7 billion. 

During the month, exports grew 14.2% annually, reaching US$66.13 billion, while imports rose 12.8%, totaling US$65.53 billion. The report highlights that non-oil exports increased 16.3%, a reflection of resilient US demand, while oil exports contracted nearly 30% amid lower crude prices and reduced export volumes. Manufactured goods dominated export activity, expanding 17.4%, with gains in machinery, minerometallurgical products, and electrical and electronic equipment. In contrast, automotive exports fell 14% due to declines in shipments to both the United States and other markets. 

Agricultural exports weakened significantly, dropping 19.5%, driven by substantial decreases in cattle, onions, tomatoes, and avocados. Extractive exports, however, rose 18.6%, contributing additional momentum to total export performance. 

Imports of intermediate goods, linked to manufacturing production, accounted for the largest share and increased 15.7%, while consumer goods imports rose 10.7%. Capital goods, essential for investment, fell 7.4%, signaling a continued softening in machinery and equipment purchases. 

For the January-October period, Mexico accumulated a trade deficit of US$2.32 billion, a dramatic improvement from the US$19.68-billion  deficit recorded during the same period in 2024. The shift reflects sustained growth in non-oil exports, greater manufacturing dynamism, and a gradual normalization of global trade flows.

The results show a dramatic increase from September 2025, when Mexico saw a trade deficit of US$2.4 billion, despite a 13.8% increase in exports, reports MBN. The deficit followed August 2025’s deficit of US$1.94 billion. For the first nine months of 2025, Mexico’s cumulative trade deficit reached US$2.93 billion.

Exports in September grew 13.8% year-over-year to US$56.48 billion. Oil exports fell 11.8%, while non-oil exports rose 14.8%, reports INEGI. Imports also increased, rising 15.2% to US$58.89 billion. Oil imports declined 2.2% year-over-year, and non-oil imports grew 16.7%. From January to September 2025, total exports rose 5.7% to US$481.62 billion, while imports climbed 2% to US$484.57 billion. 

Despite tariff uncertainty and global slowdowns, specialists expect Mexican exports to close the year with an about 4.3% increase, following steady gains over the first seven months, writes Paulina Aguilar, Co-Founder and CRO, Mundi Trade, on MBN. “This fourth-quarter of 2025 is more than a closing period. It is a window to consolidate export momentum, strengthen resilience, and lay the groundwork for a more balanced 2026. Mexico can transform this moment into a launchpad for recovery and expansion if we act with coordination and foresight,” writes Aguilar.