Maersk Restarts Trans-Suez MECL as Red Sea Risks Ease

A.P. Moller-Maersk (Maersk) is starting its first structural return to trans-Suez routing since the Red Sea crisis forced major container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, marking an early signal that carriers are testing whether security conditions have stabilized enough to restore faster East–West schedules.

On Jan. 15, 2026, Maersk said it will implement a “structural change” back to the trans-Suez route for its MECL service, which connects the Middle East and India with the US East Coast and is operated solely by Maersk. The decision follows successful trans-Suez transits by the Maersk Sebarok and Maersk Denver, which the company framed as part of a gradual, safety-first resumption of Red Sea navigation

Maersk emphasizes that the move remains conditional: it will keep monitoring the security situation closely, and the return depends on continued stability in the Red Sea and the absence of escalation in regional conflicts. The company said it has contingency plans and could revert individual sailings, or the wider structural change, back to the Cape of Good Hope if conditions deteriorate.

The first westbound sailing under the updated MECL routing is set to be the Cornelia Maersk (voyage 603W), departing Jebel Ali on Jan. 15, 2026. Maersk also says the first eastbound MECL sailing to use the trans-Suez route was the Maersk Detroit (voyage 602E), which departed North Charleston on Jan. 10, with subsequent sailings following the same routing.

On Jan. 12, 2026, Maersk detailed an “additional trans-Suez sailing” by the US-flagged Maersk Denver (voyage 552W), which on Jan. 11–12 the vessel successfully transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea under necessary safety measures. Maersk said customers with cargo on the vessel were informed directly and that, assuming security thresholds continue to be met, the company will maintain a stepwise approach toward resuming East–West corridor navigation via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.

Reuters reports that CMA CGM has said it will route vessels through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea when security conditions allow. Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd said it is not changing its Red Sea operations for now, though it is closely monitoring developments and noted that Maersk’s move has altered the situation.

Why a Red Sea Return Matters for Capacity, Schedules, and Rates

ING’s shipping analysis argues that a broader return to the Red Sea could be one of the most consequential variables for container markets in 2026, because the Suez route is central to modern East–West trade flows. The bank notes that detouring via the Cape of Good Hope became common for most container vessels for nearly two years following Houthi attacks that began in late 2023, an avoidance that lasted longer than many expected and helped underpin a rebound in container rates and liner profit margins after their post-pandemic decline.

From an operational standpoint, ING estimates that resuming Red Sea transit saves more than 3,000 nautical miles and roughly 10 days on the Asia–Northwest Europe route. Over time, that reduction in sailing distance would free up vessel capacity, because the detour currently absorbs around 6% of global fleet capacity, in addition to delays.

However, ING also warns that the transition may be messy before it is beneficial: earlier-than-expected arrivals could trigger port congestion and disrupt equipment positioning across supply chains. Once schedules stabilize, ING expects downward pressure on freight rates as capacity is released and newbuild deliveries continue, pointing to an order book that, as of November 2025, represented 32% of installed fleet capacity.

Even if security conditions improve, ING argues carriers will likely avoid moving too quickly. The report highlights insurance as a key constraint, premiums surged during the crisis and may need to fall, and some voyages may require specific approvals. It also points to the operational risk of “double disruption” if lines switch routes and then switch back, especially after carriers spent months stabilizing Cape-based schedules.

The timing is particularly sensitive for alliance networks and reliability commitments. ING notes that the new Gemini alliance network between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd has promised customers 90% arrival reliability, well above typical industry averages, increasing the incentive to avoid sudden routing changes that could undermine schedule integrity.

The Disruption Backdrop

The Red Sea crisis forced a sweeping rerouting of global services in late 2023 as missile and drone attacks elevated risk through Bab el-Mandeb and adjacent waters by the Yemen's Houthi rebels, pushing carriers to detour via Cape of Good Hope as an alternative route, and adding time, cost, and capacity strain to global networks, MBN reports. 

In a 2024 briefing cited by MBN, UNCTAD estimated Suez trade volumes fell sharply during the early phase of the crisis, and that hundreds of billions of dollars in goods were diverted as carriers paused Red Sea transits and shifted voyages via the Cape of Good Hope. These issues subsequently compounded delays and emissions impacts from longer routes.