Outlook: Key Industries Under Sheinbaum's Leadership

With MORENA still in power, experts and industry leaders have discussed the prospects for some of the country’s key sectors: mining, energy, oil and gas, construction, and manufacturing. Although Sheinbaum has promised continuity with López Obrador's policies, experts predict her administration will feature more planning and openness to the private sector.

On Monday, INE announced that Sheinbaum secured between 58.6% and 60.7% of the votes, making her the most-voted candidate in Mexico's recent history. INE also announced that MORENA and its allies will achieve a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, which will allow them to easily pass reforms in Congress. What will this mean for Mexico’s productive and manufacturing segments?

Mining

Sheinbaum’s 86-point proposal highlights that "no additional concessions for open-pit mining will be authorized, and that existing concessions will undergo thorough evaluation with community consent and careful assessment of environmental repercussions." However, experts believe her data-driven approach might lead her to reassess some of López Obrador’s mining policies. Luis Humberto Vázquez, President, AIMMGM's CDN, previously stated that the outlook for the mining industry under the next government is more positive. "We now have a clearer understanding of what our industry needs and what the government is looking for. Our relationship with MORENA shows a more positive understanding, leading to better collaboration."

Sheinbaum's insistence on the importance of extracting crucial minerals makes experts foresee a possible change of stance toward the mining sector. "Although there is uncertainty about the rule of law due to the accumulation of powers and possible constitutional reform in judicial matters, we hope that the new president will have a team that is conducive to open dialogue. Right now, the mining industry is suffering greatly, and fixing it will not happen overnight. We hope the government will rethink its foreign investment policies, making sure they are fair to both small and large miners, as well as investors who believe in Mexico," Alberto Vázquez, Partner, Tête à Tête Abogados, told MBN.

Energy

Sheinbaum’s proposal 63 emphasizes that CFE will remain a strategic public company for domestic consumers and the national interest. Proposal 65 states CFE will strengthen energy transmission and distribution capacity and maintain its role in electricity generation. 

While it has been established that Sheinbaum will continue to favor state-owned companies, she has also committed to an energy transition. Proposal 66 outlines plans for photovoltaic, wind, hydraulic, geothermal, and green hydrogen plants, aiming for 80GW of clean energy and requiring a US$13.6 billion investment. For this plan, Sheinbaum has requested the participation of the private sector.

"We invite the private sector to collaborate with us, seeking fewer court disputes and more dialogue. We are open to private financing. However, CFE needs to continue to producing 56% of the country's energy, with the private sector contributing the remaining 44 %," said Sheinbaum.

Arthur Deakin, Director of Energy, America's Market Intelligence, stated that Sheinbaum’s government could improve Mexico's environmental policies and performance. "I definitely think that she has the will and intention to put Mexico back on net-zero targets and in the good graces of the international community."

Oil Industry

Sheinbaum’s proposal 63 also states that PEMEX will remain a strategic public company for domestic consumers and the national interest. While this shows support for fossil fuels, Sheinbaum has also stated that PEMEX has the potential to diversify into renewable energy and industries such as lithium. "We have to work on two schemes: refinancing the debt associated with oil production and refining, while simultaneously venturing into other energy sources or electricity generation schemes," she said.

While the new government attempts to diversify PEMEX, Fitch Ratings has warned that PEMEX will continue to pose a significant challenge due to its debt, which represents 6% of GDP. "The incoming administration has advocated for maintaining PEMEX's important role in the country's oil market, which will entail continued transfers from the federal government in the absence of significant improvements in the company's operating efficiency," Fitch stated.

Construction, Manufacturing

Sheinbaum announced that her new government will seek to improve the country's logistics by strengthening 12 industrial parks in the southeast, while developing 10 Well-Being Development Hubs:

1. The Interoceanic Corridor will specialize in renewable energy, specialized manufacturing, agribusiness, and logistics.

2. The AIFA Corridor will focus on medical devices, pharmaceuticals, logistics, specialized manufacturing, services, and food and beverages.

3. The Gulf Corridor will focus on petrochemicals, hydrocarbons, timber, fruit cultivation, and fisheries.

4. The Pacific Corridor will prioritize agribusiness, Industry 4.0, logistics, and tourism.

5. The Border Corridor will focus on automotive, manufacturing, and agribusiness sectors.

6. The Baja Corridor will prioritize semiconductors, renewable energy, tourism, and agriculture.

7. The Bajio Corridor will specialize in automotive, data centers, aerospace, and tourism.

8. The Mayan Corridor will focus on tourism, agribusiness, renewable energy, food and beverages, and services.

9. The Central Corridor will prioritize textiles, automotive, and electrical and electronic industries.

10. The Northwest Corridor will focus on mining, agriculture, and power generation.

Sheinbaum proposes building at least 100 industrial parks to distribute national and foreign investments across the country. However, Julio Escandón, Director General, Banco BASE, noted that investors are not highly interested in the southern regions. "This proposal is difficult. You cannot box in investors or tell them, 'You have to be here because I say so.' Investors will go where capital is most profitable."