Volaris Trims 2025 Growth to 7%, Keeps Margin Outlook

Mexican low-cost carrier Volaris has revised its 2025 capacity growth forecast for the third time this year, while reinstating its margin guidance amid improved visibility into second-half demand trends.

According to its second-quarter financial report, Volaris now expects available seat miles (ASM) to increase by approximately 7% in 2025. This marks a downward revision from its initial February projection of 13%, followed by an April adjustment to a range of 8%–9%.

The airline also reinstated its full-year EBITDAR margin guidance, forecasting a margin of 32%–33%. Volaris had previously withdrawn this projection in April, citing “ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty,” which it partially attributed to tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. The original February forecast had projected a margin between 34% and 36%.

“We were able to reestablish the estimate thanks to greater visibility on demand factors for the second half of the year and our continued discipline in managing capacity,” said Volaris CEO Enrique Beltranena.

In an analyst note, Mexican brokerage Actinver described the earnings report as weak but better than expected, and welcomed the return of margin guidance as a positive signal. Volaris continues to face external pressures in its US–Mexico operations, including regulatory uncertainty and market shifts fueled by political rhetoric surrounding immigration policy.