Volatility Demands Pivot to Predictive, Time-Sensitive Logistics
Volatility Demands Pivot to Predictive, Time-Sensitive Logistics
STORY INLINE POST
Q: Freight rates are fluctuating amid shifting demand and geopolitical disruptions. How is xpd global adapting to maintain competitiveness while preserving service quality?
JM: Our large footprint, which includes 106 offices across 35 countries, has strengthened our negotiating power with major carriers. This allows us not only to secure better costs but to obtain more stable rate and capacity commitments, which are becoming increasingly scarce. Thanks to our volume-based agreements, we can sometimes lock in minimum-maximum rate ceilings for periods of six to 12 months, as long as clients can also commit to certain volumes. We translate those commitments directly back to customers. However, when clients cannot forecast demand or prefer flexibility, we operate under spot-based conditions.
Being an asset-light forwarder also gives us freedom to design alternative logistics solutions, including routing cargo through different ports, mixing sea with rail or trucking, or even combining sea and air where required. This diversification helps us manage volatility.
Data has become another strategic pillar. Using predictive analytics, performance metrics, and real-time carrier behavior we can better forecast risk and build scenario models. This allows us and our clients to make earlier, better-informed decisions to protect service reliability across highly sensitive supply chains.
RR: Geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions are exposing the vulnerabilities of asset-heavy players, particularly shipping lines and airlines. Their ability to adapt quickly is more limited compared with asset-light forwarders like us. Because trade flows and origin-destination patterns are shifting, carriers are increasingly open, and even eager to build new strategic partnerships with forwarders to stabilize their volumes. This creates a favorable environment for us to negotiate mutually beneficial agreements and secure better access to capacity.
Q: How has the rollout of your 4PL solution advanced, and what have you learned from early adopters?
RR: The results have been positive, granting us visibility across the entire supply chain of early adopters that revealed insights none of us expected. Several customers have told us that they never imagined the value that this level of data consolidation could unlock. Beyond the typical cost-reduction goals, which remain a priority, the 4PL platform is enabling users to build new operational scenarios, negotiate differently with suppliers, and elevate their standards in visibility, quality, and risk management. Many are even using these capabilities in their own sales pitch, since greater control and transparency over their supply chain helps them build customer trust and win new business.
We have also seen a shift in what clients now consider essential. Cost optimization is no longer enough. Early adopters are increasingly focused on cybersecurity standards, emissions reduction, and broader sustainability metrics. This confirms that the 4PL rollout is not only solving operational challenges but also helping customers move up the maturity curve toward more resilient, secure, and sustainable supply-chain models.
Q: What shifts are you observing in logistics demand patterns across the automotive, aerospace, manufacturing, and technology sectors?
RR: 2025 has brought a level of disruption that has essentially erased the “normal” patterns we saw in 2024. Many companies that moved high volumes across North America have reduced or paused activity due to uncertainty, which means the dominant pattern is constant change. Across the automotive, manufacturing, and technology sectors, companies are diversifying both markets and geographies. We see clients reassessing which customers they serve, how they use their production assets, and whether they should repurpose plants to supply different regions or industries. This adaptability has become essential because continuity of demand is no longer guaranteed.
Another major shift is a growing need for predictability and time-window certainty. While in 2024 this was an emerging conversation, in 2025 it has become a basic expectation: customers want data-driven indicators that help them choose routes, carriers, and service levels with more confidence amid volatility. Sustainability continues to be a strong pressure point, especially for the automotive sector. However, geopolitical factors particularly in the United States are raising questions about whether the full electric transition and previous environmental commitments will maintain the same momentum.
Finally, the political shift away from globalization toward regionalization and even national self-sufficiency is reshaping supply-chain decisions. This is happening not only in the Americas but also in the European Union and Asia, creating global realignment and heightened sensitivity across the logistics ecosystem.
JM: We are seeing clear behavioral changes from customers driven by tariff exposure and rising vulnerability in cross-border cost structures. It has become standard for clients to sit with us to evaluate full cost scenarios, component classifications, and product strategies to understand how sourcing from different locations affects their competitiveness. A major trend in 2025 is the number of foreign companies reassessing whether they can use Mexico as an entry platform into North America. Businesses that historically exported directly from China to the United States are now analyzing whether shifting part of their production to Mexico, and restructuring value-added content, could help them qualify for USMCA benefits. This type of tariff-driven redesign was far less frequent in 2024.
To support this shift, we have invested heavily in technology. We are launching a new platform that simplifies product classification and cost-structure analysis for clients, helping them navigate increasingly complex regulatory and compliance environments.
Q: What strengths are driving xpd global’s international expansion?
RR: The freight-forwarding industry is one of the most fragmented in the world. Out of an estimated 300,000 forwarders globally, only around 300 are mid-sized, and fewer than 30 are truly large, global players. The leap between these tiers is exponential. What stands out about xpd global is that, in just about 20 years, we have moved from the bottom layer into the mid-tier and we are now actively competing with the top global players.
Our expansion into the European Union and Asia is part of that long-term strategy. We aim to become the top choice globally in time-critical cargo by 2030. That focus allows us to go head-to-head with the industry’s biggest companies, which traditionally dominate high-sensitivity, high-value supply chains. And we are already seeing results. We are managing time-sensitive air-cargo flows between South Korea and Vietnam for major electronics manufacturers. This shows that we have grown beyond a regional origin and are now competing globally on service sophistication, not geography.
A key reason for this traction is our philosophy of being a people-first company. Our talent is what differentiates us in highly complex tenders and is often the reason clients choose us over century-old competitors backed by railways or national postal giants. This journey, a Latin American company breaking global paradigms, caught the attention of IPADE Business School, which selected xpd Global as a case study showcasing how a firm from the region can successfully challenge industry giants through focus, culture, and strategic expansion.
JM: The IPADE case study allowed us to step back and reflect on our trajectory, our successes, our mistakes, and the lessons that shaped our expansion strategy. It helped crystallize why diversification is essential. Just like many Mexican companies that depend heavily on US trade are now reassessing their exposure due to tariff uncertainty, we also had to evaluate where our most scalable assets truly were. That exercise showed that our biggest competitive strengths, our culture, our talent, our transformational leaders, our global client relationships, and our technology, all scale better when we operate on a global stage, not just a regional one. And if this experience inspires others to take bold steps toward global expansion, then the case will have achieved its purpose.
Q: What are the company’s main plans moving forward, and what are its main goals for 2026?
JM: 2026 is shaping up to be an exciting year because many of the projects we began building in previous cycles, particularly in Asia and the European Union, have now reached a more mature stage. This puts us in a strong position to move to the next level in terms of strategic partnerships and market relevance.
We are also rolling out xpd Connect, our end-to-end visibility platform. It has robust features designed to simplify the customer experience, deliver near–real-time tracking, while seamlessly integrating with local, regional, and global partners. It also connects easily with clients’ systems, whether they use their own 4PL platforms or rely on ours, giving us the flexibility to adapt to whatever model delivers the most value for them.
Another initiative for 2026 is building a community of companies in Mexico and Latin America that want to expand internationally. Inspired by what we learned through the IPADE case study, we want to share our experience, the lessons, the frameworks, the capabilities, so that more regional companies can succeed globally. 2026 will require continuous reinvention. We plan to integrate AI more deeply across our processes while maintaining the balance between automation and human expertise, especially in critical decision-making. Combining strong talent with smart technology will be the foundation of how we scale next year.
RR: In 2026, the company will finally leverage the full maturity of our global footprint. This scale is already enabling us to win tenders and operate major programs in regions that were not part of our traditional network. 2025 was a pivotal year in identifying and establishing offices in cities where global logistics decisions are made. This led us to open new locations in Toulouse, Seoul, Lyon, Taipei, Chennai, Birmingham, and soon Tokyo. These offices put us physically close to decision-makers at some of the world’s most influential companies.
For 2026, our focus shifts to completing the footprint in EMEA, with expansions planned in Saudi Arabia, as well as strategic origin-and-destination markets such as Morocco, Tunisia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Qatar. These moves directly support our eight core verticals: automotive, aerospace, high tech, pharma/healthcare, mining, manufacturing, food and beverage, and energy. We also expect to launch a ninth vertical, Luxury Fashion, by the second half of 2026. All of this aligns with our core strategic offering: time-sensitive and time-critical cargo solutions. Time-sensitive cargo requires strict delivery windows to avoid becoming urgent, while time-critical involves immediate, high-stakes deliveries, an area where we have over 20 years of demonstrated expertise.
Our expanded footprint, strengthened teams, and enhanced capabilities, combined with the technological foundation of xpd Connect, will allow us to offer faster, more consistent, and more globally integrated solutions. This positions us strongly for 2026 as we continue to compete at the top tier of the global logistics industry.
xpd global is a Mexican freight forwarder specializing in time-critical integrated logistics solutions for the automotive, aerospace, manufacturing, and technology industries, among others.







By Fernando Mares | Journalist & Industry Analyst -
Thu, 12/04/2025 - 14:19









